{
\def\sym#1{\ifmmode^{#1}\else\(^{#1}\)\fi}
\begin{longtable}{l*{8}{c}}
\caption*{Table A15: Full Specification for Table A5, Real Durable Goods Spending vs. Year-Ahead Expectations, Baseline Sample, GEE estimation}\\
\toprule\endfirsthead\midrule\endhead\midrule\endfoot\endlastfoot
                                             &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(1)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(2)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(3)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(4)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(5)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(6)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(7)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(8)}         \\
\midrule
Inflation Expectation                        &       0.191\sym{**} &       0.158\sym{*}  &       0.140\sym{**} &       0.190\sym{**} &       0.166\sym{*}  &       0.203\sym{**} &       0.193\sym{**} &       0.172\sym{*}  \\
                                             &     (0.089)         &     (0.083)         &     (0.065)         &     (0.092)         &     (0.090)         &     (0.102)         &     (0.088)         &     (0.099)         \\
Inflation Uncertainty                        &       0.075         &       0.072         &       0.135         &       0.068         &       0.114         &       0.126         &       0.098         &       0.040         \\
                                             &     (0.091)         &     (0.086)         &     (0.098)         &     (0.089)         &     (0.089)         &     (0.100)         &     (0.093)         &     (0.084)         \\
Household Income (Log)                       &     --1.128         &     --0.908         &     --1.053         &     --1.150         &     --1.187         &     --1.112         &     --1.239         &     --1.398\sym{*}  \\
                                             &     (0.839)         &     (0.754)         &     (0.867)         &     (0.847)         &     (0.916)         &     (0.869)         &     (0.833)         &     (0.833)         \\
Monthly Payments (Log)                       &       0.038         &     --0.005         &       0.031         &       0.041         &       0.024         &       0.023         &       0.031         &       0.044         \\
                                             &     (0.179)         &     (0.171)         &     (0.186)         &     (0.185)         &     (0.187)         &     (0.175)         &     (0.180)         &     (0.170)         \\
Expects Interest Rate Increase                              &       0.135         &       0.249         &       0.166         &       0.128         &       0.063         &       0.288         &       0.186         &       0.113         \\
                                             &     (0.299)         &     (0.283)         &     (0.301)         &     (0.295)         &     (0.303)         &     (0.363)         &     (0.305)         &     (0.333)         \\
Expects Interest Rate Decrease                              &       0.080         &       0.266         &     --0.027         &       0.020         &       0.072         &     --0.127         &       0.090         &       0.286         \\
                                             &     (0.373)         &     (0.386)         &     (0.367)         &     (0.388)         &     (0.389)         &     (0.397)         &     (0.380)         &     (0.361)         \\
Real Wage Expectation                        &       0.033         &       0.003         &       0.036         &       0.032         &       0.033         &       0.038         &       0.039         &       0.006         \\
                                             &     (0.066)         &     (0.054)         &     (0.057)         &     (0.065)         &     (0.066)         &     (0.061)         &     (0.065)         &     (0.074)         \\
Wage Uncertainty                             &     --0.017         &     --0.004         &     --0.021         &     --0.019         &     --0.014         &     --0.043         &     --0.017         &       0.046         \\
                                             &     (0.095)         &     (0.080)         &     (0.084)         &     (0.092)         &     (0.096)         &     (0.098)         &     (0.091)         &     (0.093)         \\
No Mortgage Indicator                                &       0.387         &       0.056         &       0.376         &       0.405         &       0.383         &       0.307         &       0.387         &       0.220         \\
                                             &     (0.673)         &     (0.572)         &     (0.708)         &     (0.668)         &     (0.658)         &     (0.764)         &     (0.648)         &     (0.660)         \\
Age                                          &       0.012         &       0.017         &       0.012         &       0.010         &       0.005         &       0.015         &       0.015         &       0.008         \\
                                             &     (0.018)         &     (0.017)         &     (0.018)         &     (0.018)         &     (0.018)         &     (0.021)         &     (0.018)         &     (0.020)         \\
Non-White                                  &       0.315         &       0.393         &       0.193         &       0.278         &       0.590\sym{*}  &       0.320         &       0.317         &       0.097         \\
                                             &     (0.349)         &     (0.332)         &     (0.329)         &     (0.369)         &     (0.317)         &     (0.452)         &     (0.373)         &     (0.404)         \\
Female                                     &       0.295         &       0.253         &       0.380\sym{*}  &       0.321         &       0.233         &       0.340\sym{*}  &       0.373         &       0.262         \\
                                             &     (0.210)         &     (0.198)         &     (0.195)         &     (0.231)         &     (0.210)         &     (0.204)         &     (0.239)         &     (0.248)         \\
Retired                                    &     --0.211         &     --0.141         &     --0.213         &     --0.240         &     --0.161         &     --0.174         &     --0.248         &     --0.191         \\
                                             &     (0.237)         &     (0.325)         &     (0.233)         &     (0.241)         &     (0.245)         &     (0.324)         &     (0.244)         &     (0.264)         \\
Homeowner                                  &       0.590         &     --0.166         &       0.546         &       0.526         &       0.293         &       0.593         &       0.477         &       0.531         \\
                                             &     (0.731)         &     (0.926)         &     (0.711)         &     (0.685)         &     (0.680)         &     (0.751)         &     (0.707)         &     (0.771)         \\
House Price Expectation                      &     --0.008         &     --0.009         &     --0.006         &     --0.009         &     --0.006         &     --0.016         &     --0.011         &     --0.004         \\
                                             &     (0.022)         &     (0.022)         &     (0.022)         &     (0.023)         &     (0.022)         &     (0.024)         &     (0.022)         &     (0.021)         \\
Expects Unemployment Increase                                  &     --1.232\sym{***}&     --1.353\sym{***}&     --1.233\sym{***}&     --1.093\sym{***}&     --1.240\sym{***}&     --0.999\sym{**} &     --1.216\sym{***}&     --1.232\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.409)         &     (0.459)         &     (0.380)         &     (0.391)         &     (0.407)         &     (0.448)         &     (0.420)         &     (0.440)         \\
Expects Unemployment Decrease                                  &     --0.103         &     --0.149         &     --0.179         &       0.104         &     --0.091         &     --0.324         &     --0.087         &     --0.168         \\
                                             &     (0.284)         &     (0.271)         &     (0.260)         &     (0.381)         &     (0.287)         &     (0.323)         &     (0.290)         &     (0.326)         \\
Mean Inflation Expectation                   &     --0.248\sym{*}  &     --0.240\sym{**} &     --0.250\sym{**} &     --0.239\sym{*}  &     --0.170         &     --0.229         &     --0.258\sym{**} &     --0.232\sym{*}  \\
                                             &     (0.132)         &     (0.107)         &     (0.111)         &     (0.128)         &     (0.128)         &     (0.147)         &     (0.130)         &     (0.138)         \\
Mean Inflation Uncertainty                   &       0.068         &       0.106         &       0.115         &       0.078         &       0.036         &       0.075         &       0.033         &       0.140         \\
                                             &     (0.092)         &     (0.092)         &     (0.123)         &     (0.089)         &     (0.092)         &     (0.108)         &     (0.101)         &     (0.100)         \\
Mean Log Household Income                    &       2.320\sym{***}&       2.048\sym{***}&       2.308\sym{**} &       2.338\sym{***}&       2.466\sym{**} &       2.392\sym{***}&       2.439\sym{***}&       2.569\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.896)         &     (0.785)         &     (0.907)         &     (0.902)         &     (0.974)         &     (0.902)         &     (0.888)         &     (0.883)         \\
Mean Log Monthly Payments                    &     --0.054         &       0.014         &     --0.049         &     --0.068         &     --0.055         &     --0.058         &     --0.045         &     --0.051         \\
                                             &     (0.178)         &     (0.174)         &     (0.186)         &     (0.189)         &     (0.185)         &     (0.172)         &     (0.179)         &     (0.178)         \\
Mean Expects Interest Rate Increase          &       0.171         &       0.314         &       0.244         &       0.156         &       0.066         &     --0.118         &       0.092         &       0.109         \\
                                             &     (0.432)         &     (0.451)         &     (0.447)         &     (0.433)         &     (0.478)         &     (0.452)         &     (0.442)         &     (0.467)         \\
Mean Expects Interest Rate Decrease          &     --0.431         &     --0.845         &     --0.218         &     --0.360         &     --0.334         &     --0.362         &     --0.364         &     --0.239         \\
                                             &     (0.538)         &     (0.623)         &     (0.499)         &     (0.558)         &     (0.564)         &     (0.551)         &     (0.538)         &     (0.585)         \\
Mean Real Wage Expectation                   &     --0.019         &       0.019         &     --0.015         &     --0.018         &     --0.008         &       0.048         &     --0.026         &       0.007         \\
                                             &     (0.072)         &     (0.057)         &     (0.060)         &     (0.070)         &     (0.072)         &     (0.082)         &     (0.071)         &     (0.080)         \\
Mean Wage Uncertainty                        &     --0.193         &     --0.203\sym{**} &     --0.176         &     --0.188         &     --0.188         &     --0.173         &     --0.195         &     --0.276\sym{*}  \\
                                             &     (0.132)         &     (0.099)         &     (0.118)         &     (0.126)         &     (0.133)         &     (0.140)         &     (0.129)         &     (0.150)         \\
Mean No Mortgage Indicator                   &       0.056         &       0.451         &       0.081         &     --0.014         &       0.020         &       0.022         &       0.142         &       0.410         \\
                                             &     (0.659)         &     (0.588)         &     (0.700)         &     (0.684)         &     (0.639)         &     (0.750)         &     (0.636)         &     (0.719)         \\
Mean Homeowner                               &       1.115         &       1.766         &       1.089         &       1.144         &       1.944\sym{**} &       0.819         &       1.333         &       1.153         \\
                                             &     (0.925)         &     (1.099)         &     (0.917)         &     (0.922)         &     (0.802)         &     (0.982)         &     (0.913)         &     (0.974)         \\
Mean House Price Expectation                 &       0.045         &       0.046\sym{*}  &       0.044\sym{*}  &       0.043         &       0.047         &       0.071\sym{**} &       0.047         &       0.040         \\
                                             &     (0.030)         &     (0.027)         &     (0.027)         &     (0.028)         &     (0.031)         &     (0.031)         &     (0.029)         &     (0.028)         \\
Mean Expects Unemployment Increase           &       1.276\sym{***}&       1.327\sym{***}&       1.194\sym{***}&       1.268\sym{***}&       1.383\sym{***}&       1.243\sym{**} &       1.316\sym{***}&       1.445\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.416)         &     (0.413)         &     (0.412)         &     (0.393)         &     (0.404)         &     (0.526)         &     (0.431)         &     (0.475)         \\
Mean Expects Unemployment Decrease           &       0.225         &       0.136         &       0.208         &       0.128         &       0.291         &       0.302         &       0.208         &       0.494         \\
                                             &     (0.381)         &     (0.411)         &     (0.368)         &     (0.407)         &     (0.373)         &     (0.438)         &     (0.418)         &     (0.446)         \\
No College                                 &     --0.497         &     --0.250         &     --0.294         &     --0.398         &     --0.410         &     --0.216         &     --0.648         &     --0.488         \\
                                             &     (0.375)         &     (0.378)         &     (0.478)         &     (0.431)         &     (0.375)         &     (0.368)         &     (0.442)         &     (0.403)         \\
No College $\times$ Inflation Expectation  &     --0.355\sym{***}&     --0.331\sym{***}&     --0.248         &     --0.363\sym{***}&     --0.344\sym{***}&     --0.308\sym{***}&     --0.350\sym{***}&     --0.297\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.087)         &     (0.077)         &     (0.152)         &     (0.091)         &     (0.088)         &     (0.088)         &     (0.086)         &     (0.104)         \\
No College $\times$ Inflation Uncertainty  &       0.043         &       0.010         &     --0.078         &       0.062         &       0.021         &     --0.068         &       0.137         &       0.007         \\
                                             &     (0.120)         &     (0.117)         &     (0.181)         &     (0.129)         &     (0.119)         &     (0.125)         &     (0.156)         &     (0.133)         \\
Mean Log Household Income $\times$ Inflation Expectation&     --0.169\sym{***}&     --0.159\sym{***}&     --0.134\sym{***}&     --0.160\sym{***}&     --0.168\sym{***}&     --0.174\sym{***}&     --0.176\sym{***}&     --0.143\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.038)         &     (0.040)         &     (0.052)         &     (0.038)         &     (0.042)         &     (0.061)         &     (0.037)         &     (0.043)         \\
Mean Log Monthly Payments $\times$ Inflation Expectation&       0.019         &       0.022\sym{*}  &       0.019         &       0.016         &       0.018         &       0.008         &       0.021         &       0.022         \\
                                             &     (0.013)         &     (0.013)         &     (0.014)         &     (0.013)         &     (0.014)         &     (0.016)         &     (0.014)         &     (0.014)         \\
Mean No Mortgage Indicator $\times$ Inflation Expectation&     --0.052         &     --0.049         &     --0.044         &     --0.044         &     --0.046         &     --0.062         &     --0.057         &     --0.063         \\
                                             &     (0.065)         &     (0.063)         &     (0.069)         &     (0.065)         &     (0.075)         &     (0.078)         &     (0.063)         &     (0.078)         \\
Regional Gas Price Inflation                 &                     &       0.089\sym{**} &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &     (0.041)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
Lagged Inflation Expectation                 &                     &                     &       0.077\sym{**} &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.033)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Lagged Inflation Expectation&                     &                     &     --0.208\sym{*}  &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.108)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
Lagged Inflation Uncertainty                 &                     &                     &     --0.139         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.147)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Lagged Inflation Uncertainty&                     &                     &       0.234         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.189)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Expects Unemployment Increase            &                     &                     &                     &     --0.331         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &                     &     (0.634)         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Expects Unemployment Decrease            &                     &                     &                     &     --0.438         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &                     &     (0.517)         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
\midrule
Correlated Random Effects                    &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         \\
Chi$^2$                                      &     2195.88         &     1925.33         &     1858.56         &     1959.62         &     1965.45         &     1524.31         &     1649.52         &     1024.02         \\
P Value                                      &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         \\
Sample Size                                  &        1084         &        1084         &        1084         &        1084         &        1070         &         990         &        1069         &        1007         \\
\bottomrule \caption*{\normalsize \doublespacing Standard errors in parentheses. \\ \textit{Note:} Each column includes time fixed effects. All means refer to within-subject means. Model (1) is unaltered. Model (2) includes gas price inflation and regional controls. Regional controls are omitted. Model (3) includes the lagged inflation expectation and lagged inflation uncertainty and their interactions with the no college indicator. Model (4) includes the interactions of the unemployment expectations indicators with the no college indicator. Model (5) restricts to the overlap sample between the durables and nondurables samples. Model (6) restricts to households in the durables sample with more than 5 observations. Model (7) excludes months with outlier median inflation expectations: June 2010, March 2011, September 2011, February 2012. Model (8) excludes observations from 2009, in which the durable sample's spending patterns were most different from the CES. Robust standard errors are clustered at the level of the individual respondent. \sym{*} \(p<0.10\), \sym{**} \(p<0.05\), \sym{***} \(p<0.01\) }
\end{longtable}
}
